Only Half Of Americans Likely To Comply With New COVID Lockdown

Less Than 50% Of Americans Likely To Comply With New COVID Lockdown

Here's the data, according to Gallup, based on the poll taken between Oct.19 and Nov.1:

  • 49% say they're "very likely" to stay home for a month if mandated, down from 67% who said they would in the spring.
  • 18% said they were "somewhat likely" to comply.
  • One-third said they would be "unlikely" to comply with new lockdown orders.
  • This despite 61% saying they believe the situation is getting worse.
  • The number of respondents who said they'd be unlikely to comply is double the rate seen from polls in the spring.
About half of Americans in Gallup's latest polling on the COVID-19 pandemic, 49%, say they would be very likely to stay home for a month if public health officials recommended it due to a serious outbreak of the virus in their community. This contrasts with solid majorities in the spring who said they were likely to comply with such shelter-in-place advice, including a high of 67% in late March/early April.

Another 18% of Americans say they would be somewhat likely to follow public health officials' advice to stay home for a month, bringing the total inclined to comply to the majority level. But a full third say they would be very or somewhat unlikely to comply, about double the rate seen in the spring.

Most of the decline in Americans' willingness to follow shelter-in-place advice is due to a sharp drop among Republicans -- falling to 40% in Gallup's latest polling, from 74% in the spring. Democrats' willingness to stay at home has remained high, at 87% today versus 91% in March and April.

The latest data are from Gallup's Oct. 19-Nov. 1 probability-based panel survey tracking Americans' attitudes and behaviors related to the pandemic. The online Gallup Panel survey encompassed a period of rising COVID-19 cases across the country, with 31 states experiencing their highest one-day new infection rates thus far.

Relatively few Americans (29%) during this period thought their own area was "very likely" to experience a surge of coronavirus cases in the coming weeks, while another 40% considered it somewhat likely.

One significant change since April that may explain why Americans are now less likely to say they would go into home lockdown is that they have greater confidence in their ability to protect themselves from being infected by the coronavirus when out in public.

The percentage of feeling very or somewhat confident in their ability to avoid infection rose from 68% in mid-April to 82% in June and has since remained at that level.

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