Lockdowns May Have Had Little Effect on COVID-19 Spread


Data show that compulsory lockdowns have had a high cost, with a questionable impact on transmission.

In 1932, Justice Louis Brandeis of the Supreme Court famously referred to the states as "democracy laboratories." Different states can test different policies and can learn from each other. In 2020, that proved valid. Governors in various states react to the COVID-19 pandemic at different times and in different ways. Sweeping shutdowns were ordered by some states, such as California. A more targeted approach was taken by others, such as Florida. Others, such as South Dakota, transmitted data but had no lockdowns at all.

As a consequence, to test the question no one wants to ask, we can now compare findings in various states: Did the lockdowns make a difference?

If the course of this pandemic was really altered by lockdowns, then the coronavirus case counts should have fallen clearly whenever and wherever lockdowns took place. The effect, albeit with a time lag, should have been apparent. It takes time to formally count new coronavirus infections, so we'd expect the numbers to fall as soon as the waiting time is over.

For how long? New infections should drop on day one and be noticed about ten or eleven days from the beginning of the lockdown. The number of patients with the first signs of infection should decrease by day six (the average time for symptoms to show is six days). By day nine or ten, far fewer people will be going to hospitals with deteriorating symptoms. If COVID-19 tests were conducted immediately, we would expect the positives to drop dramatically on day 10 or 11 (assuming rapid test turnarounds).

To judge from the evidence, the answer is clear: Mandated lockdowns had little effect on the spread of the coronavirus. The charts below show the daily case curves for the United States as a whole and for thirteen U.S. states. As in almost every country, we consistently see a steep climb as the virus spreads, followed by a transition (marked by the gray circles) to a flatter curve. At some point, the curves always slope downward, though this wasn’t obvious for all states until the summer.

Popular Posts (Last 30 Days)

Topics

Activist ADE Advertising Air Quality Airlines Alchohol Alex Berenson Allergic Antibody Antitrust Apple Apps Arizona Aspirin Astra Zeneca Australia Bankruptcy Banks Banned Bars BBB Beaches Bell's Palsy Ben Shapiro Biden Big Pharma Big Tech Bill Gates BioNTech Blackmail Booster Business California Canada Candace Owens Cares Act CDC Censorship Chart Chicago Children China Class Action Clinical Trials Closures CNN Comirnaty Contact Tracing Corruption COVAX Cover Up Crimes Against Humanity Cult Cuomo Data Deaths DeSantis Doctor Reiner Doctors DOJ Dominion Dr Reiner Dr Shiva Drugs Durability ECDC Education Election Elon Musk Email Enforcement Europe Exemptions Extortion Facebook Fake Laws Fake News Fake Tests Fake Vaccine False Positive Famotidine Fauci FBI FDA Fear Mongering Federal Reserve Feds Fines Florida Flu Flu Shots Fox France Fraud Free Speech Freedom FTC Gavin Newsom Geert Vanden Bossche Genome Germany Glenn Beck Globalism Google Government Guillain-BarrΓ© Halloween Harvard Health Health Department Healthcare Heart Herd Immunity Hero HHS Hospitals How To Humor Hydroxychloroquine Hypocrisy India Injured Insurance Investment IRS Israel Italy Ivermectin J&J Japan Jeff Bezos Jobs Joe Rogan LA County Larry Elder Lawsuits Leadership Let Them Breathe Lies Loans Local Laws Lockdown Los Angeles Mandates Map Masks Media Medicaid Melatonin Mental Health Michigan Microsoft Minnesota Moderna Money Montana mRNA Mutation Myocarditis Nashville Natural Immunity NBA New Jersey New York New Zealand Nextstrain NFL NIH Nursing Homes NY NY Post Ohio Opinion Opposing View Oppression Outdoors Parks Passport Patents PCR Pennsylvania Peter McCullough Pfizer Phishing Physicians Declaration Placebo Pneumonia Police Politics Poll Pollution PPP Prevention Pro Choice Project Veritas Protest Racism Rand Paul Real Estate Refuse Regeneron Relief Checks Remdesirvir Restaurants Restraining Order Robert Malone Rudy Giuliani Rumble Russia Safegraph SBA Scams Schools Science Scott Gottlieb Senate Seniors Side Effects Sidney Powell Social Distancing South Korea Spain Sports Stadiums Stakeholder Capitalism Stay at Home Study Substance Abuse Surveillance Sweden Swine Flu Symptoms Taxes Teachers Technology Testing Texas Tips Tom Cotton Tony Bobulinski Transmission Treatment Trojan Horse Trump Tucker Carlson Twitter Tyranny UK Unemployment United Nations Vaccine VAERS Video Vietnam Vitamin D Warren Buffett Washington WEF Whistleblower WHO Wisconsin Women Workers Comp Zinc