Estimating the Number of COVID Vaccine Deaths in America

Analysis of the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database can be
used to estimate the number of excess deaths 

As of August 27th, 2021, a search of the VAERS database shows that there are 7,149 domestic
deaths in the VAERS database (US/Territories/Unknown).
VAERS underreports historically by 50X to 123X.

Analysis of the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database can be
used to estimate the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID vaccines. A simple
analysis shows that it is likely that over 150,000 Americans have been killed by the current
COVID vaccines as of Aug 28, 2021.

The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database is the only pharmacovigilance
database used by FDA and CDC that is accessible to the public. It is the only database to which
the public can voluntarily report injuries or deaths following vaccinations. Medical professionals
and pharmaceutical manufacturers are mandated to report serious injuries or deaths to VAERS
following vaccinations when they are made aware of them. It is a “passive” system with
uncertain reporting rates. VAERS is called the “early warning system” because it is intended to
reveal early signals of problems, which can then be evaluated carefully by using an “active”
surveillance system.

The VAERS database can be used to estimate the number of deaths caused by the COVID
vaccines using the following method:
1. Determine the significant adverse event under-reporting multiplier by using a known
significant adverse event rate
2. Determine the number of US deaths reported into VAERS
3. Determine the propensity to report significant adverse events this year
4. Estimate the number of excess deaths using these numbers
5. Validate the result using independent methods



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